Singapore home prices have reached a bottom and will rebound, while Hong Kong’s “crazy” housing market will continue to go up, according to BNP Paribas SA.
Significant income growth is likely to drive the first leg of a recovery to home prices in Singapore. Property assets as a proportion of household assets is near a record low, according to BNP’s Asia-Pacific head of research for financial institutions and property, Wee Liat Lee said in an interview while visiting Singapore. That will likely boost prices by 10 percent to 15 percent over the next 12 to 15 months, in turn luring foreign buyers, especially from China, Lee said.
Singapore property prices have declined for 15 quarters — the longest slide since data was published in 1975 — as the government rolled out a series of cooling measures. Home values have also dropped 12 percent from their 2013 peak, while Hong Kong prices reached new record highs earlier this year.
With China’s government stemming capital outflows, money has become illiquid in Hong Kong. The physical quantity of investable assets is small, and asset prices rise very quickly.”
Singapore ranks better on affordability compared to Hong Kong. The house price-to-income ratio in Singapore has declined to 10 times from 12 times in the past decade, while in Hong Kong it has climbed to 15 times from about 11 times, Lee said.